Despite the setbacks of the corona crisis, an inflection point in the automobile industry is coming. This is what the results of the Bain & Company study “Endgame in the Automotive Industry: it all Depends on the Tipping Point” indicate. But how long will it be until this tipping point arrives? And how can companies best prepare for that day?

For starters, “tipping point” refers to the timepoint when these new technologies go from a niche to a mass market. Bain’s models predict that for electric cars, this tipping point is 2024, and for autonomous cars and robo-taxis, it will come in 2028. Autonomous cars must first overcome some key hurdles before achieving market acceptance. These include ensuring the technical capabilities to drive in adverse weather and unforeseen traffic conditions without a driver. The cost of autonomous driving systems would also have to drop significantly, although Bain already predicts an 85% drop by 2030.

So what does this mean for companies? Bain partner Dr. Klaus Stricker urged car manufacturers and distributors, even those facing immense cost pressures, to continue investing in electromobility, battery and fuel cell technology, software and connectivity for autonomous cars. According to Stricker, in the end, the companies that maximize efficiency to decrease costs, recognize the potential of technology and bravely invest in it at the right time will be rewarded.