The German Expert Committee on Climate Change comes to a sobering realization in its latest report. If the federal government remains on its current course of emissions reduction, the climate targets for 2030 will not be achievable. At least a doubling of greenhouse gas emissions saved is required to meet these targets.

The target set by the Federal Constitutional Court, a reduction of 65 percent of emissions by 2030 compared to 1990, is legally binding. However, from 2000 to 2021, only a reduction of around 27 percent has been achieved.

Overall, the Expert Council warns that at the current rate, none of the individual sectors, let alone the sum of them, will achieve the targets. Radical changes are needed.

The energy sector is responsible for almost half of the total emissions in Germany (compared to 2000-2021). Within its own sector, a reduction of around 36 percent has been achieved. The building sector has achieved similar results with a reduction of 35 percent. However, the transportation and industrial sectors have performed significantly worse.

Achievement of climate targets particularly jeopardized by transportation and industrial sectors

The transportation sector has only achieved a reduction of 13 percent in emissions. Recently, transport-related emissions have even increased again. The COVID-19 pandemic had contributed to a significant reduction in emissions in the transportation sector, otherwise the situation would be even worse.

To achieve the climate targets in the industrial sector, emissions savings would need to increase tenfold, and in the transportation sector, fourteenfold.

According to Brigitte Knopf, Vice Chair of the Expert Council, all levers must now be set in motion. A massive expansion of renewable energies is necessary, as well as legally binding emissions limits. For example, a ban on oil heating systems in new residential buildings.

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